SPL PREVIEW

Hearts v Dundee Utd

                                                        Football : Scottish Premier League
                                                  Saturday 31/07/2011 - Kickoff 15.00 (local)

Hearts

Hearts were on Europa League qualifying duty on Thursday night which saw them taking a vital away goal back to Tynecastle for the return leg with a 1-1 draw away to Hungarian team Paks. To be honest watching the game Hearts were actually unlucky to have not won the match having dominated large periods of the game.

What is encouraging for boss Jim Jeffries is his players are showing a contination of the early season form that took a point away from Ibrox last week. Also, Hearts have done this without a number of first team players with Kevin Kyle, Andy Webster, Rudi Skacel and Andrew Driver still unavailable.

You've got to think that Dundee Utd will be one of the main challangers to Hearts for 3rd place this season so this game is an important one for the Gorgie side to win. Jeffries will be looking for a huge effort despite their midweek exertions.

Hearts are without Jamie Hamill through suspension.

Possible Hearts Lineup :
Kello, McGowan, Zaliukas, Jonsson, Grainger, Black, Mrowiec, Templeton, Obua, Stevenson, Sutton

Dundee Utd

The main talking point from a Dundee United perspective is the imminent transfer of striker David Goodwillie out of the club with a 2.8m deal to take him to Blackburn all but done. Whether it goes through or not I don't really expect him to play in this match anyway.

Dundee United have a pretty good team this year with the additions of John Rakin from Hibs and bringing back Willo Flood their midfield will be creative and they have 2 great young wide players in Gary Mackay-Stevens and Danny Swanson. I imagine they will be hunting for a replacement to Goodwillie up front to partner Russell.

Manager Peter Huston, will be a bit disappointed with his sides performanace so far this season having been knocked out of the Europa Cup qualifying round at the first asking on away goals when they were in a winning position. Then last week they had to rescue a draw from a home tie with Kilmarnock where they were under serious pressure throughout the match.

Possible Dundee Utd lineup:
Pernis, Watson, Dillion, Dixon, Douglas, Severin, Flood, Mackay-Stevens, Rakin, Daly, Russell

PREDICTION

The key to victory for Hearts will be to take care of the inventive Willo Flood and limit the service striker Russell receives. David Templeton has been Heart's best player so far and it is noticable most of the good play comes through his ability to beat players down the left wing. They will be looking to play the ball through him as much as possible.

One thing I have noticed in recent encounters between these two teams is that the away side rarely wins, with this in mind and the confidence that Hearts are carrying at the moment I will take them to edge it here with possibly John Sutton grabbing a goal on his home debut.

THE PICK

Hearts 1-0 Dundee Utd

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE

Hearts 50% Dundee Utd 25% Draw 25%

THE BET

Take Hearts to win available @ 2.12 (Pinnacle)

SPL PREVIEW

St Mirren v Aberdeen
Football : Scottish Premier League
Date: 30/07/2011
Time: 15.00 (local)

St Mirren

So far, for me, St Mirren boss Danny Lennon has been the most active in the close season bringing in no less than 7 quality signings that will really strengthen the squad he already has. I'm still not actually sure how he managed to do it but Steven Thompson, Nigel Hasselbaink, Paul McGowan, Graeme Smith, Gary Teale, Graham Carey and Jeroen Tesselaar have all be signed with the only noticable loss being striker Higdon to Motherwell.

These signings show the attacking intent that St Mirren will play with this season. I am told that they will play the same team as last weekend which saw a 4-3-3 formation with Teale, Thompson and Hasselbaink upfront.

St Mirren were very unlucky not to start the season off with 3pts against Dunfermline after dominating large periods of the match and Thompson missing a penalty on his debut. They will take heart though from a very encouraging performance and as their manager says look to turn the narrow draws into wins.

St Mirren are without Kennedy and McKernon through suspension.

Possible Lineup: Samson, Van Zanten, McGregor, Mair, Tesselaar, Thomson, Goodwin, McGowan, Teale, Thompson, Hasselbaink


Aberdeen

What has happened to the "famous" Aberdeen in recent years? Well, to put it bluntly they have made a succession of terrible managerial appointments which has left the club on its knees and in dire need of a turnaround.

So, in an attempt to rectify the situation the board have turned to the very capable hands of Craig Brown and assistant Archie Knox, who were brought in to clean up the mess left behind after the dismissal of former legend Mark McGee back in January. Brown did a decent job towards the end of last season and it will be interesting to see if he can restore the club to it's former glory now he has had the chance to shape the team and add some of his signings.

Brown's changes have started right from the back with keeper Gonzalez being loaned from Man City to cover Jamie Langfield who suffered some kind of seizure at the end of May and it now seems his football career is uncertain. In defence Brown has has to replace Zander Diamond, who went to Oldham, with Youl Mawene a player he managed in his time at Preston. Icelandic midfielder Kari Arnason has been brought in to beef up the midfield and with the return to fitness of the promising Fyvie things are already looking better.

Also back from a loan spell at Rangers is the versatile Ricky Foster who can play at left back or midfield, he was handed the captains armband this season to stave off thoughts of a perminent move away from the club. Up front though Brown has lost the services of both Chris Maguire and Sone Aluko so it will be up to Darren Mackie and Scott Vernon to get the goals.

Aberdeen will be without the suspended Ryan Jack following a red card last week.

Possible lineup : Gonzalez, Mawene, Considine, Forster, Arnason, Fyvie, Pawlett, Osbourne, Milson, Vernon, Mackie.

PREDICTION

The Scottish season started ridiculously early which a few managers were not really happy about which I believe lead to both of these teams starting off the season with rather unsatisfactory nil all draws.

Now with an extra weeks training allowing the new team mates to gel I imagine St Mirren will be the more likely to claim a tight victory here.

If we look at the previous years results, it seems to stack up. St Mirren won 3 out of the 4 league meetings, with Aberdeen winning in the cup after a replay was required.

I like both teams to score here and wouldn't rule out a score draw but my gut feel is that St Mirrens new fire power will bag the result.


RECENT ENCOUNTERS

2010/2011     Tue 10 May     Aberdeen     0 - 1     St. Mirren     SPL
2010/2011     Wed 06 Apr     St. Mirren    3 - 2     Aberdeen     SPL
2010/2011     Wed 16 Mar     Aberdeen    2 - 1     St. Mirren     SFAC
2010/2011     Sat 12 Mar     St. Mirren      1 - 1     Aberdeen     SFAC
2010/2011     Sat 15 Jan     Aberdeen        2 - 0     St. Mirren     SPL
2010/2011     Sat 30 Oct     St. Mirren       2 - 1     Aberdeen     SPL
2009/2010     Sat 08 May     St. Mirren      0 - 1     Aberdeen     SPL

THE PICK

St Mirren 2 - 1 Aberdeen

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE

St Mirren 35% Aberdeen 30% Draw 35%

THE BET

I recommend both teams to score @ 2.00 (1.8 unit stake)


also

Take St Mirren with DRAW NO BET @ 1.85 (2 unit stake)

SPL Picks - Sunday 24th July

Taking Celtic to beat Hibs with the -1.5 Asian Handicap @2.07(Unit stake 7)

I reckon Hibs will get dominated in midfield by Kayal and Ki Sung-Yeung and the attacking trio of Commons, Hooper and Stokes will run amok!

Hibs are playing a bunch of kids, might work for SAF but not for the dirty Hibees.

Couple of Tennis Picks today

Hamburg ATP (GER) - Clay

Mikhail Youzhny @1.59 to beat Marin Cilic (2 unit stake)

and

Nicolas Almagro @1.45 to beat Florian Mayer (2 unit stake)

SPL Update

Since posting the preview below, Rangers have signed Hearts left back, Lee Wallace, for £1.5m.

There is the possibility that he will go straight into the team if Papac is not quite fit.

Hearts will need to play their new signing Danny Grainger, who now it seems was bought as a replacement for Wallace expected departure.

This is a bit of a blow for Hearts as Wallace is a good player and its never good to loose an Internationalist.

SPL PREVIEW

                                                                Rangers v Hearts
                                                           Scottish Premier League
                                                               Date: 23/07/2011
                                                              Time: 12.30 (local)


Rangers

This campaign see's the start of a new era for the champions with Walter Smith standing down and Super Ally stepping up from his assistant role. McCoist has been the perfect apprentice under his mentor Smith and I don't think there is anyone better placed to really truely know the club, their fans and the pressures that are demanded in Glasgow where every game is a must win. 

Transfer wise they have been relatively quiet with the only noticable signing coming in being the left sided midfielder Ortiz from Spanish side Almeria. I imagine there will be a couple more to come with Villa's Cuellar keeping them waiting and the possiblity of another former player, Kenny Miller, returning but whatever happens they seem unlikey to be in place to make Saturday's squad.

Rangers have had a pretty uninspiring preseason, with a tour of Germany seeing defeats from Sportfreude, Bochum and Bayer Leverkusen. Rangers didn't even manage a goal in any of these games but no doubt fitness was the main aim. I watched them play a friendly with Blackpool on Tuesday night and I expect the team put out in the first half will be the one that starts against Hearts on saturday with the only exception being veteran David Weir as he is carrying a suspension from last season. Sasa Papac then should fill in at left back with Kirk Broadfoot standing in for Weir in the heart of defence. Rangers looked match fit and not surprisingly a lot sharper than Blackpool and ran out comfortable 2-0 winners thanks to a double from Steven Davis.

A slight worry for McCoist is that they are lacking a little upfront with Kyle Lafferty out till the end of August after a hernia op so it is a little bit of a surprise they were not a bit more proactive in trying to get Kenny Miller back to the club. They will have to settle for now with Jelavic playing the lone striker role supported by attacking midfielder Naismith.

Possible Lineup : McGregor, Whittaker,Bougherra, Broadfoot, Papac, Davis, Edu, McCulloch, Ortiz, Naismith, Jelavic


Hearts

Hearts finished third last season and although they ended up a massive 30 points behind the old firm I think this gap could have been considerably closer had they not suffered injuries to key players after christmas. So manager Jim Jefferies has done well to add some proven SPL quality players to his squad this season in Jamie Hamill, John Sutton, Danny Grainger and Mehdi Taoul and if they can secure the services of Rudi Skacel they should maintain their status as the best of the rest.

In John Sutton, younger brother of Chris Sutton, they have bought a goal scorer who is capable of getting double figures for the season and he will be vital back up for Kevin Kyle who is constantly injured.

Hearts too have had a pretty quiet warm up to the season with a 3-0 win over East Fife, a 1-0 defeat to Livingston and a final pre-season victory over Belgian side Royal Antwerp 1-0.

It's fair to say that an away trip to Ibrox for Hearts is not really a fixture Hearts relish and one that they very rarely get anything from. It really does prove grim reading for the Hearts fans when looking at past results, in fact you have to back as far as May 2004 for their last and only victory this century in Glasgow!

Possible lineup : Kello, Wallace, Webster, Zaliukas, Jonsson, Templeton, Taouil, Black, Obua, Stevenson, Sutton

PREDICTION

Rangers and Hearts will be well prepared for this match as they both have european qualifying ties the following midweek so I expect them to be up to match speed.

With Hearts likely to be still without key players Driver, Skacel and Kyle and Rangers basically playing their full strength title winning team from last season, given past form, I can't see past anything other than a convincing opening day victory for Rangers.

It's also worth pointing out that Hearts have quite a history of getting players sent off in this fixture and with discipline not one of their strong points, finishing the game with 11 men might be an achievement in itself.

THE PICK

Rangers 3-0 Hearts

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE

Rangers 70% Hearts 10% Draw 20%

THE BET

Although Rangers are short odds on, I recommend taking the odds of around 1.40 (7 unit stake)

Copa America Preview

                                                Paraguay v Venezuela
                                                   Copa America - Semi finals
                                                          Date: 21/07/2011
                                                              Time: 01:45


Dear Jim,

Please can you fix it for me to get one Copa America match to go as planned...........


Paraguay


So, Paraguay through to the semi finals and still to actually win a game in 90 mins! To be fair though they could so easily have qualified out of the group stages as winners but for Brazil's Fred snatching a last minute 2-2 draw and their opponents here somehow scoring two very late goals when a comfortable win was virtually secured. In the quarter final against Brazil they really did have their keeper to thank, who put in a true captains performance to take the game into penalties. It's worth noting that Paraguay didn't have a single shot on target the whole 120mins in that game though. As it happens Villar wasn't really required to do much in the shootout as Brazil and the dodgy penalty spot produced yet another Copa shocker.

I think Paraguay will fancy their chances against Venezuela, as they know from the group meeting that they are the better team. It will be interesting to see if they go again with Valdez and Barrios up front as I'm not sure of Santa Cruz's fitness. Alcaraz is suspended so I expect Piris to get in the starting XI  


Possible Lineup: Villar, Piris, Da Silva, Veron, Torres, Barreto, Ortigoza, Riveros, Estigarribia, Valdez, Barrios

Venezuela

I have said from the start of the tournament that Venezuela are a poor side but yet here they are in the semi finals with Brazil, Argentina and Chile nowhere to be seen. This is already the biggest achievement in their history as it is the first time they have got to the semi final of the Copa America. I think they have done this with tough gritty performances and snatching the goals at vital moments in matches. If they are to make it to the final they are going to have to again defend well and look to play on the counter attack. I've watched Malaga's striker Rondon last season and he has already proven he is capable of taking his limited chances when they come. They will, however, be without one of their best players as Rincon saw red against Chile and will have to sit this one out.

Possible lineup : Vega, Rosales, Perozo, Vizcarrondo, Cichero, Lucena, Gonzalez, Arango, Miku, Meza, Rondon




HEAD TO HEAD

13/07/2011 Paraguay 3-3 Venezuela - Copa America

PREDICTION

As mentioned above I don't think the results have really given Paraguay the credit they deserve and taking into consideration the group game I really cant see anything else than a comfortable win for Paraguay as I believe they are the superior team and have the firepower required upfront.

THE PICK

Paraguay 2-0 Venezuela

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE

Paraguay 50% Venezuela 20% Draw 30%

THE BET

I'm taking Paraguay to finally get the job done in 90mins @circa 2.1 (1 unit  stake)

Copa America Preview : Argentina v Uruguay

Copa America - Quarter Final
Saturday 16th July 2011 - Kick Off 11.15pm
Santa Fe


Copa America reaches the Quarter Final stages and we have two teams clashing here that started slowly at best.

Argentina

On paper, hosts Argentina are unbeaten have only conceded one goal and are a couple of matches away from the final! However, anybody having stayed up to watch their opening two group games will know that it could so easily have been a very different, almost unthinkable, story. It's true Bolivia were close to pulling off a shock in the tournament curtain raiser and Colombia should really have taken 3pts from their match but the simple fact is they didn't. Sergio Batista had to hold his hands up and admit his attempt to replicate Barcelona's 4-3-3 was just not working and was seeming to frustrate his super stars and most noticeably Messi was struggling to make an impact. So under the mounting pressure of the nation he did what basically everybody was calling for in the must win game against Costa Rica and resorted back to their more familiar 4-2-1-3 system. This allowed them to play, for me, their more dangerous players Aguero and Di Maria out wide with Higuain through the middle and gave them the opportunity to get the best out of Messi playing just in behind.
I fully expect Argentina to be unchanged as for the first time this Copa they actually looked confident in their ability to create enough chances in a match.


Expected Lineup : Romero, Zabaleta, Milito, Burdisso, Zanetti, Mascherano, Gago, Messi, Di Maria, Aguero, Higuain

Uruguay

Again, on paper Uruguay are unbeaten and a couple of matches away from the final.... but I've got to admit I have been a bit disappointed with them. I had a modest bet on them in the winners market at odds of 12.5 with a view to be able to trade out at a decent price if everything had panned out as it was meant to and they hit the tournament's perceived big boys in the semi finals. As it is with the expected group winners not quite going to plan they are meeting a round earlier and I've had to trade out with my tail between my legs.

Uruguay's problem for me is two fold, they are lacking any creativity in the centre of the park and secondly they consistently fail to take their chances up front when they come. Forlan has had an awful season in Spain and I imagine he hoped Copa America would be a change in circumstance for him but up until now I have not really seen any change in his form. Unfortunately Suarez seems more interested in diving about and trying to get players sent off than scoring goals at this tournament. Porto's Alvaro Pereira is in fact the man threatening to win the golden boot!

Expected Lineup : Muslera, M. Pereira, Caceres, Lugano, A. Pereira, Rodriguez, Perez, Eguren, Gonzalez, Forlan, Suarez

Prediction

The pre tournament favourites have not really lived up to their billing so far and looked less than convincing against the only decent team they have met so far, Colombia, but I think the easy 3-0 win over Costa Rica was exactly what they needed to reinstall some confidence. I'm expecting Uruguay to defend strongly but for me it's time for Messi to once again show his genius, creating and possibily scoring in a 2-0 victory.

Although tempted by Argentina -1AH, I will be looking to jump on Argentina inplay @ circa 1.8(2units)
Also small bet on 6 to 8pts on the booking odds @3.8 (1unit)

2011 Open Championship (Update)

I've been glued to The Open since Ivor Robson announced the first 3somes on Thursday, its been great stuff and probably all the better without a certain Mr Woods....Probably a slight surprise is that Westwood and Donald both missed the cut. Lets have a look how my picks are getting on.



Kaymer     @ 30.0    (1 unit)  Tied 3rd at -3, now trading @8.0
G-Mac       @ 32.0    (1.25 unit) Missed Cut
Schwartzel @ 40.0    (1 unit)  Tied 7th at -2, now trading @14.0
Scott          @ 70.0    (0.5 unit) Tied 14th at -1, now trading @34.0
Karlsson    @75.0    (0.5 unit) Missed Cut
Green        @320.0  (0.25 unit) Tied 32nd at +1, now trading @380.0


So I think with the quality of Kaymer (one off the lead) and Schwartzel (round of 67 today) may be possibly even Adam Scott just 3 back we are still right in the chase here especially with the dodgy weather conditions predicted to come!

Schwartzel is also well positioned to win my main bet of best South African but this Coetzee geezer is running me close.

2011 Open Championship

This years 140th Open Championship sees a return to Royal St George's Golf Club in Sandwich, Kent. This was the venue for the first Open to be played outside of Scotland way back in 1894. The course itself is only a par 70, measuring 7211 yards with only two par 5's but also having two par 4's over 490 yards. This is a  true links course in every sense of the word, hugging the Kent coast line with undulating fairways and very much open to the elements. So wind may well play a big part this week. Not really inspiring stuff for the 52 Americana's competing, and let me just mention there has not been a US winner of the last 5 majors, there dominance seemingly nowhere at the moment. So basically I am going for a European flavour here in my picks but my main bet will be Schwartzel to be the top South African @4.0 (3 Units)

Pick wise I have gone for the following with a view to trade:

Kaymer     @ 30.0    (1 unit)
G-Mac       @ 32.0    (1.25 unit)
Schwartzel @ 40.0    (1 unit)
Scott          @ 70.0    (0.5 unit)
Karlsson    @75.0    (0.5 unit)
Green        @320.0  (0.25 unit)

Football Double for Today

I will try a little football double for the today but would emphasise caution as we are dealing with a friendly and a Champions League 2nd Round 1st leg Qualification match.

Mogren Budve v Litex Lovech - I am expecting the Bulgarians to be much better than this Montenegrin team who have apparently sold a number of their better players from last season. Litex have brought in some new quality players and should be a class above.

Benfica v Dijon - This friendly is being played in Switzerland and Benfica are coming off the back of their first preseason fixture which they won 9-1 against Freiburg. I expect them to play a strong team again and should be far too much quality for this newly promoted French team.


So I'm going with  Litex/Benfica double @ 2.3 (1.5 unit stake)

Argentina v Costa Rica

Few people, not least myself, could have expected the predicament that Argentina now find themselves in after their opening two games in group A. You could have almost forgiven them for nerves in the tournament opener against Boliva, a match in which they were very lucky to escape with a point thanks to sub Aguero's late equaliser. Unfortunately, their supporters were not so forgiving when things got a whole lot worse against Colombia where they were held to a scoreless draw ending in a chorus of boo's from their expecting nation. In all fairness a draw against that Colombian team isn't in fact looking that bad a result on reflection as Falcao & Co are actually a really handy outfit, but for their baying press I think the obvious lack of belief in the system they are trying to play is the most worrying thing that everybody seems to be able to see apart from the manager, Sergio Batista. He has tried to implement the same system as the all conquering Barcelona team and the simple fact is, it ain't working! So they are tonight resorting back to the system that they are more comfortable with and allows them to get the most out of their mouth watering array of attacking talent. Di Maria on the left, Aguero on the right and Higuain through the middle with Messi hopefully causing havoc just behind them. Mascherano will play as the holding midfielder with Gago given the nod probably for his passing quality.

Tonight it is very simple for Argentina win or almost certainly have the humiliation of being knocked out of the group stages from a tournament they are favourites to win. For me it is simply unthinkable, especially against this young Costa Rican side who are only actually at the Copa as invitees. I have been semi impressed by their striker Campbell so Milito and Burdisso will certainly have to keep an eye on him but really they are not a very good team and one which Argentina should really be winning comfortably against.

Oh, national anthems are starting......

My pick is Argentina -2 @ 1.8 (2 Unit stake)

Welcome one and all.........

Please allow me to introduce myself  I'm a man of wealth and taste, I've been around for a long long year.......and now I've gone and started my own blog.


I've been sports betting for coming up two decades and am mainly interested in football and tennis trading, however I do like to dabble in the occasional bit of NRL, NBA, golf, darts and snooker.

I'm going to use this blog to detail some of my picks and preview some football matches. 

I also like a good old rant about the beautiful game so please feel free to add and share your own comments as, whether right or wrong, we all have opinions.


Pleased to meet you, hope you guessed my name.....

Gaffa