Copa America - Quarter Final
Saturday 16th July 2011 - Kick Off 11.15pm
Santa Fe
Copa America reaches the Quarter Final stages and we have two teams clashing here that started slowly at best.
Argentina
On paper, hosts Argentina are unbeaten have only conceded one goal and are a couple of matches away from the final! However, anybody having stayed up to watch their opening two group games will know that it could so easily have been a very different, almost unthinkable, story. It's true Bolivia were close to pulling off a shock in the tournament curtain raiser and Colombia should really have taken 3pts from their match but the simple fact is they didn't. Sergio Batista had to hold his hands up and admit his attempt to replicate Barcelona's 4-3-3 was just not working and was seeming to frustrate his super stars and most noticeably Messi was struggling to make an impact. So under the mounting pressure of the nation he did what basically everybody was calling for in the must win game against Costa Rica and resorted back to their more familiar 4-2-1-3 system. This allowed them to play, for me, their more dangerous players Aguero and Di Maria out wide with Higuain through the middle and gave them the opportunity to get the best out of Messi playing just in behind.
I fully expect Argentina to be unchanged as for the first time this Copa they actually looked confident in their ability to create enough chances in a match.
Expected Lineup : Romero, Zabaleta, Milito, Burdisso, Zanetti, Mascherano, Gago, Messi, Di Maria, Aguero, Higuain
Uruguay
Again, on paper Uruguay are unbeaten and a couple of matches away from the final.... but I've got to admit I have been a bit disappointed with them. I had a modest bet on them in the winners market at odds of 12.5 with a view to be able to trade out at a decent price if everything had panned out as it was meant to and they hit the tournament's perceived big boys in the semi finals. As it is with the expected group winners not quite going to plan they are meeting a round earlier and I've had to trade out with my tail between my legs.
Uruguay's problem for me is two fold, they are lacking any creativity in the centre of the park and secondly they consistently fail to take their chances up front when they come. Forlan has had an awful season in Spain and I imagine he hoped Copa America would be a change in circumstance for him but up until now I have not really seen any change in his form. Unfortunately Suarez seems more interested in diving about and trying to get players sent off than scoring goals at this tournament. Porto's Alvaro Pereira is in fact the man threatening to win the golden boot!
Expected Lineup : Muslera, M. Pereira, Caceres, Lugano, A. Pereira, Rodriguez, Perez, Eguren, Gonzalez, Forlan, Suarez
Prediction
The pre tournament favourites have not really lived up to their billing so far and looked less than convincing against the only decent team they have met so far, Colombia, but I think the easy 3-0 win over Costa Rica was exactly what they needed to reinstall some confidence. I'm expecting Uruguay to defend strongly but for me it's time for Messi to once again show his genius, creating and possibily scoring in a 2-0 victory.
Although tempted by Argentina -1AH, I will be looking to jump on Argentina inplay @ circa 1.8(2units)
Also small bet on 6 to 8pts on the booking odds @3.8 (1unit)
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